Struyven’s calculations come as economists are surveying the damage that President Donald Trump’s Operation Epic Fury is doing to the U.S. economy. Penn Wharton Budget Model Director Kent Smetters previously told Fortune that he estimates a wide range of outcomes, including damage to the U.S. economy as high as $210 billion. Smetters offered one note of caution about how war costs are typically framed. “One problem I have with cost-of-war calculations is that they really do ignore the counterfactual,” he added. “If Iran really did get a nuclear weapon, then we might have spent a lot more on military and even repair of cities later on.”
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Nature, Published online: 25 February 2026; doi:10.1038/d41586-026-00580-2
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